How Likely Is It: Investigation 3: Making Decisions With Probability 
MMS Math
Essentials &
Vocabulary Vocabulary on this page Parents Help Links on this page 
IXL Math
BBC Bitesize Math Probability Activity
Coin Tossing – Explore probability concepts by simulating repeated coin tosses.  
Hamlet Happens – Verify that rare events happen by drawing letters from a box.  
Spinners – Work with spinners to learn about numbers and probabilities.  
Stick or Switch – Investigate probabilities of sticking with a decision, or switching. 
Adjustable Spinner

Creating a Spinner to Examine Experimental and Theoretical Outcomes  
Fire

Simulating the Spread of a Wildfire Using Probability 
Concept with Explanation
Selected Homework from ACE
The unit How Likely Is It? was created to help students:
Understand that probabilities are useful for predicting what will happen over the long run
Understand the concepts of equally likely and not equally likely;
Understand that a game of chance is fair only if each player has the same chance of winning, not just a possible chance of winning;
Understand that there are two ways to build probability models: by gathering data from experiments (experimental probability) and by analyzing the possible equally likely outcomes (theoretical probability);
Understand that experimental probabilities are better estimates of theoretical probabilities when they are based on larger numbers of trials;
Develop strategies for finding both experimental and theoretical probabilities; and
Critically interpret statements of probability to make decisions or answer questions.
Vocabulary 
Picture  Vocabuary 
Probability  
outcomes  
stemandleaf plot  
trial  
theoretical probability  
experimental probability  
outcomes  
simulation  
event  
trial  
tree diagram 